
281 
FNUS54 KMRX 160813
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY WITH INCREASING 
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROF WHICH WILL BUILD NORTHEAST OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI 
VALLEY. ADDITIONAL LIFT WILL BE PROVIDED AT THE SURFACE...AS AN 
ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST INTO MIDDLE 
TENNESSEE...PULLING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE SOUTHERN 
APPALACHIANS. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN 
HIGH TONIGHT...DUE TO THE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THESE 
FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. 


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-170915-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      72-77 (-6)   57-62 (+1)   69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      59-64 (+9)   95-100 (+3)  60-65        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           80           90           
PRECIP DURATION       4            4            8            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.85         0.46         0.34         
LAL                   5            5            5            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7300                      6900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  6                      SW 15        
DISPERSION            24 FAIR                   62 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE 50S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY
IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S.
EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S. EAST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-170915-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      70-75 (-5)   56-61 (+1)   68-73        
RH % (24H TREND)      61-66 (+12)  95-100 (+4)  58-63        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           80           80           
PRECIP DURATION       4            4            8            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.56         0.60         0.43         
LAL                   5            5            5            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7300                      7200         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  6                      SW 13        
DISPERSION            21 FAIR                   51 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE
50S. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. COOLER.
LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN
10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-170915-
TENNESSEE PORTION OF THE GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      70-75 (-4)   57-62 (+2)   69-74        
RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+8)   93-98 (+8)   53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           80           
PRECIP DURATION       4            3            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.65         0.27         0.26         
LAL                   5            4            5            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7400                      6900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  7                      SW 13        
DISPERSION            25 FAIR                   41 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 40S TO UPPER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN
THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE 60S TO MID 70S. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-170915-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      75-80 (-4)   59-64 (+3)   73-78        
RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (+3)   94-99 (+5)   55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           80           
PRECIP DURATION       4            3            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.58         0.14         0.20         
LAL                   5            4            5            
LASI                  4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    7300                      6300         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   SW 10                     W 13         
DISPERSION            44 GEN GOOD               48 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-170915-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      76-81 (-4)   60-65 (+4)   73-78        
RH % (24H TREND)      53-58 (+4)   95-100 (+8)  55-60        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           80           
PRECIP DURATION       4            3            5            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.47         0.20         0.22         
LAL                   5            4            5            
LASI                  4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    8300                      6900         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 12                      W 13         
DISPERSION            59 GEN GOOD               52 GEN GOOD  
MAX LVORI             4                         4            

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO
10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-170915-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT EAST-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      75-80 (-4)   58-63 (+2)   72-77        
RH % (24H TREND)      56-61 (+8)   94-99 (0)    56-61        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           80           80           
PRECIP DURATION       4            4            8            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.81         0.38         0.31         
LAL                   5            5            5            
LASI                  3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5900                      6500         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  5                      SW 13        
DISPERSION            17 GEN POOR               57 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGHS IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY
IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-170915-
EAST TENNESSEE DISTRICT WEST-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      74-79 (-4)   60-65 (+3)   74-79        
RH % (24H TREND)      58-63 (+5)   89-94 (-3)   52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     90           70           70           
PRECIP DURATION       4            3            3            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.85         0.16         0.20         
LAL                   5            5            5            
LASI                  4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5600                      6100         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S  5                      SW 15        
DISPERSION            18 GEN POOR               61 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S
TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-170915-
CUMBERLAND DISTRICT SOUTH-
413 AM EDT SUN MAY 16 2010 /313 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010/

                      TODAY        TONIGHT      MON          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      75-80 (-4)   60-65 (+1)   75-80        
RH % (24H TREND)      54-59 (-1)   92-97 (0)    51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)     LGT/VAR                   W  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     SW  5        LGT/VAR      NW  6        
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           70           60           
PRECIP DURATION       4            3            3            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 AM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.70         0.08         0.15         
LAL                   5            4            4            
LASI                  4                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)    5200                      6400         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)   S 10                      W 14         
DISPERSION            37 FAIR                   65 GOOD      

REMARKS...NONE.

.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.
NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID
80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S. EAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

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