
188 
FNUS54 KMRX 151847
FWFMRX

FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN 
REGION TONIGHT...WITH A FEW ORGANIZED SYSTEMS OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. SOME STORMS WITH 
THESE SYSTEMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE 
HAIL... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE 
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY 
NIGHT...WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION FOR THE 
WEEKEND.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-161945-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST/VIRGINIA DISTRICT 6-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (+8)   81-86 (-1)   63-68        81-86        
RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (0)    55-60 (+6)   94-99        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  6        LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           70           50           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            3            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.16         0.21         0.22         0.07         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 12         
DISPERSION                         39 FAIR                   27 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS NEAR 60. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 50S. WEST WINDS 
LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE 70S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 
MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S 
TO LOWER 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-161945-
NORTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      63-68 (+6)   80-85 (-1)   62-67        80-85        
RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+6)   56-61 (+8)   95-100       52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  W  5                      LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      NW  7        LGT/VAR      W  7         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.34         0.34         0.14         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 13                      W 13         
DISPERSION                         34 FAIR                   23 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE 50S. NORTHWEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S 
TO LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. 
EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ072-074-161945-
GREAT SMOKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      64-69 (+2)   79-84 (-1)   62-67        79-84        
RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+8)   60-65 (+8)   95-100       52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      W  7         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.61         0.59         0.14         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 14         
DISPERSION                         29 FAIR                   22 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO 
LOWER 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 
70S TO MID 80S. EAST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS 
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ087-102-161945-
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE NATIONAL FOREST-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      66-71 (+1)   81-86 (-1)   64-69        81-86        
RH % (24H TREND)      93-98 (+3)   58-63 (+5)   95-100       53-58        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.09         0.81         0.67         0.15         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 16         
DISPERSION                         38 FAIR                   37 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTH WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 
EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

NCZ060-061-161945-
NANTAHALA NATIONAL FOREST-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+5)   80-85 (-1)   62-67        80-85        
RH % (24H TREND)      94-99 (+1)   60-65 (+6)   95-100       51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  5         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  8         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     30           80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.06         0.76         0.63         0.17         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                NW 12                     W 16         
DISPERSION                         36 FAIR                   37 FAIR      
MAX LVORI                          4                         4            

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTHWEST WINDS UP 
TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO 
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 
80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 
UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-161945-
TENNESSEE FORESTRY DISTRICT 1-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      65-70 (+4)   82-87 (-2)   64-69        82-87        
RH % (24H TREND)      90-95 (+1)   55-60 (+8)   93-98        51-56        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SW  5                     LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  6         LGT/VAR      W  5         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           70           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.35         0.38         0.11         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5900                      4700         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 12         
DISPERSION                         44 GEN GOOD               34 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. WEST 
WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO 
LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-161945-
TENNESSEE FORESTRY DISTRICT 2-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      67-72 (+3)   82-87 (-2)   65-70        82-87        
RH % (24H TREND)      91-96 (+3)   56-61 (+4)   92-97        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR      
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      W  5         LGT/VAR      W  6         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     50           80           50           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            1            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.26         0.56         0.47         0.10         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 13         
DISPERSION                         46 GEN GOOD               38 FAIR      

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. COOLER. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO 
LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. NORTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO 
MID 80S. EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$

TNZ076-077-079>085-097>101-161945-
TENNESSEE FORESTRY DISTRICT 3-
245 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2009 /145 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2009/

                      TONIGHT      THU          THU NIGHT    FRI          

CLOUD COVER           MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        MCLDY        
TEMP (24H TREND)      70-75 (+5)   84-89 (-1)   66-71        84-89        
RH % (24H TREND)      84-89 (-3)   57-62 (+4)   90-95        52-57        
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   W  6         
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      W  7         
PRECIP TYPE           TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        TSTMS        
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     40           80           60           40           
PRECIP DURATION       1            8            2            1            
PRECIP BEGIN          8 PM         CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP END            CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   CONTINUING   
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.17         0.88         0.61         0.12         
LASI                               3                         3            
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 5800                      4800         
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                W 12                      W 16         
DISPERSION                         47 GEN GOOD               52 GEN GOOD  

REMARKS...SOME THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY 
HEAVY RAINFALL UP TO AN INCH OR TWO.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. WEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. 
NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SATURDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS 
UP TO 10 MPH. 
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. NORTH 
WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 
70S TO MID 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. 
EAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS IN THE 80S. 
SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 MPH. 

$$





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