The Storm Prediction Center presently has a day 1 Marginal Risk of severe convective weather for far eastern Iowa, southern Wisconsin, and northern Illinois. This categorical risk threshold was added back in 2015 as something slightly lower than their "slight" threshold. Today's marginal risk area just barely clips the NWS La Crosse County Warning Area (CWA) and the featured chart presents the period each year between the first and last marginal risk. The red tick bars represent individual dates with a marginal risk. With a limited period of record, only last year had an earlier date of 16 January. While severe weather seems very unlikely for Iowa, very warm temperatures for the second week of February are very likely with highs in the lower 60s for some!

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Tags:   spc