IEM Daily Feature
Thursday, 23 December 2010
Thursday, 23 December 2010
Evolution of the forecast
Posted: 23 Dec 2010 05:57 AM
The GFS weather forecast model is run by the US government and
produces forecasts from the current time out to about two weeks into
the future. The model runs for the past week have been advertising a
snow storm for today into Christmas Eve. This forecast has evolved
over time though as is presented by the featured chart. Each row in
the chart represents a successive forecast model run. The area in
white is outside the time domain of the given model's run output data
(8 days). Model runs made on the 19th dumped a fair amount of snow on
Ames for today, but have since backed off on the amounts and delayed
the onset by 12 or more hours. Making sense of this changing forecast
is one of the reasons why we still have humans diligently creating
forecasts each day.
Voting:
Good = 49
Bad = 12
Tags: model
Voting:
Good = 49
Bad = 12
Tags: model