Date: 16 Sep 05:30 AM
Votes: Good: 19 Bad: 1 Abstain: 2
| Timestamp | Repository | Message | Link |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 16 11:01 AM | iem,main | 📝 Update alias collective to include FLW | Link |
| Sep 16 8:29 PM | iem,main | 🐛 Fix spacing and title placement | Link |
Besting September 1914
Date: 16 Sep 05:30 AM
Votes: Good: 19
Bad: 1 Abstain: 2
The precipitation totals for September continue to pile up as daily rounds of storms frequent the state. For Des Moines, the September 2026 total now stands at 10.52 inches and is the second largest total on record during the month of September behind 14.81" during 1914. With half of the month to go, it would seem "easy" to break this record, but the featured chart tells another story. The chart plots the accumulated precipitation total for 2026 (red line) and 1914 (black line). The tan lines represent the appending of previous year's 16-30 September data unto the 2026 time series. This effectively provides potential scenarios for where the 2026 total could end up. Using this method and remarkably, only 7.4% of previous years would push the 2026 total to a record value. The main issue is that the 2026 total is still 4.3 inches short of 1914 and that total in itself would be extreme for the last half of September. Climatology is also working against larger precipitation totals by the day as the atmosphere continues to cool and hold less water vapor. Having said all of that, the forecast looks to bring another two inches, at least, for the remainder of the week. So stay tuned!
The featured media can be generated on-demand here
.| Summary | By WFO | Watches | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | US | IA | ARX | DVN | DMX | OAX | FSD | US |
| Tornado | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Svr Tstorm | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Flash Flood | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | --- |
ARX = LaCrosse, WI DVN = Davenport, IA DMX = Des Moines, IA OAX = Omaha, NE FSD = Sioux Falls, SD
SVR+TOR Warnings Issued: 36 Verified: 8 [22.2%] Polygon Size Versus County Size [5.1%] Average Perimeter Ratio [16.9%] Percentage of Warned Area Verified (15km) [12.9%] Average Storm Based Warning Size [655 sq km] Probability of Detection(higher is better) [0.61] False Alarm Ratio (lower is better) [0.78] Critical Success Index (higher is better) [0.19]
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