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377 
FNUS73 KDMX 251156
FWSDMX

Spot Forecast for Hickory Grove Park...Story County Conservation
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
656 AM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on April 25. 
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

An initial observation at ignition and a mid burn observation are required.

Please relay them to the National Weather Service for each prescribed burn.

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly sunny skies expected today. Winds should be 10 kts or less.
Combined with above normal fuel moisture and below normal ERCs,
fire weather conditions not favorable for fires becoming out of
control.

A few light showers are possible on
Thursday. A boundary will move through the state on Thursday and
will lead to the wind becoming breezy and from the northwest
during the day.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). 
Max temperature.....Around 64. 
Min humidity........28 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 6 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......1800-3300 ft AGL increasing to 5900-6300 ft 
                    AGL. 
Transport winds.....North 6 to 15 mph. 
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth or moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 
Sky (%).........41  34  27  21  17  13  9   6   4   2   
Weather cov.....                                        
Weather type....                                        
Tstm cov........                                        
Temp............46  49  52  54  57  59  61  63  64  64  
RH..............68  61  54  48  42  37  33  31  29  28  
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   
20 FT wind spd..10  10  9   8   8   8   8   7   6   7   
20 FT wind gust.13  13  10                              
Mix hgt (kft)...1.8 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.6 5.2 5.6 5.9 6.3 6.0 
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   
Transp wind spd.15  15  15  14  13  10  8   7   6   6   
Haines index....4   4   5   5   4   4   4   5   5   5   

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). 
Min temperature.....Around 40. 
Max humidity........76 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 5 to 7 mph early in the evening 
                    becoming light, then becoming south around 5 
                    mph early in the morning. 
Mixing height.......5500-5800 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....East 1 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest 1 to 
                    5 mph after midnight. 
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM   
Sky (%).........1      1      1      1      4      10     
Weather cov.....                                          
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   
Tstm cov........                                          
Temp............63     59     52     49     46     43     
RH..............30     36     46     54     60     65     
20 ft wind......N 7    N 5    NE 3   S 2    S 2    S 5    
20 ft wind gust.                                          
Mix hgt (ft)....5800   3800   300    300    300    300    
Transport wind..N 6    N 5    NE 1   SE 1   S 3    SW 5   
Haines index....5      5      5      5      5      5      

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Slight chance of 
                    rain in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....Around 65. 
Min humidity........35 percent. 
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 5 mph early in the 
                    morning becoming light, then becoming northwest 
                    5 to 14 mph early in the morning increasing to 
                    around 15 mph. 
Mixing height.......300-1400 ft AGL increasing to 6500-7100 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph increasing to northwest 
                    14 to 21 mph in the late morning and afternoon. 
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume 
                    dominated fire growth or moderate potential for 
                    large plume dominated fire growth. 

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM      
Sky (%).........20        20        39        63        
Weather cov.....                              S CHC     
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      RAIN      
Tstm cov........                                        
Temp............40        51        63        65        
RH..............73        54        36        37        
20 FT wind......SW 5      SW 7      W 10G12   NW 13G18  
Mix hgt (ft)....300       2500      5300      6800      
Transport wind..SW 3      W 12      W 15      NW 15     
Haines index....4         5         5         4         

$$
Forecaster...Kotenberg
Requested by...Dustin Horne
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807760.0/DMX
.EMAIL dhorne@storycountyiowa.gov