The exceptional warmth of 2012 has certainly continued during July. Even with northerly winds on Thursday, temperatures were still able to reach the 90s for most of the state. What are the chances that this year will be the warmest on record? The featured chart presents the combination of the current year-to-date average temperature along with the rest of each year previously back to 1880 for Des Moines as a potential scenario. This year could certainly continue to be unlike any other previous year, but for the sake of argument we will assume it repeats like some previous year. With these scenarios, 64% of the previous years would help us to finish as the warmest year on record. So while the current year-to-date lead is very large, there is time to lose ground. This chart would also indicate that this year should remain warmer than the warmest on record until mid November at the earliest.

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Tags:   2012