There many techniques that can used to generate a weather forecast for high temperatures. The errors associated with two of these techniques are shown in the featured chart. A "persistence" forecast is simply saying that today's high temperature will be tomorrows and then the next day and ... One version of a "climate" forecast is simply saying that the high temperature will be the average high temperature for the given day. Averaged over a year, the climate forecast will have nearly the same daily error, since it is a measure of the spread of the variability. The persistence forecast gets progressively worse over time as weather and climate effects change the local conditions. Note that the persistence forecast is better for day 2 and close for day 3. Also note that the persistence forecast for day 1 is zero, since the persistence forecast for today is the observation for today.

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Tags:   persistence