The featured plot attempts to show the persistence (or lack thereof) of day to day high temperatures throughout the year. The four lines represent the root mean squared error (RMSE) of the difference between high temps for a date versus the high temp for a date so many days into the future! Confusing, eh? What this plot is showing is persistence of high temperatures in time. The lowest RMSE values are for day2, which makes sense as tomorrow is more likely to be similiar today than the day after tomorrow. The RMSE values increase for day4 and day5, but are similiar in value. During the year, you can see the lowest values in the summer, which is due to the lack of strong cold fronts providing temperature contrasts. The jump in values in September shows the influence of stronger fronts as the seasons change.

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Tags:   persistence